Public methodology

How SportsTerrace reaches a probability.

The production baseline combines sport-specific Elo ratings with de-vigged market probabilities when a qualified line is available. Football can also use form, injuries and provider prediction signals. Missing inputs are omitted rather than invented.

What the numbers mean

A 60% forecast is not a promise. Across a sufficiently large, comparable sample, a calibrated 60% band should win roughly six times in ten. We report sample size, calibration and scoring performance so that claim can be audited.

Data and locking

Historical results come primarily from OpenFootball and live fixtures from ESPN/API-Sports integrations. Historical closing prices come from football-data.co.uk. Current odds require a timestamped multi-book feed. Published forecasts are versioned and locked at kickoff before settlement.